.K. C. ZACHARIAH April 2016 I am thankful to Professor S. Irudaya Rajan for providing all the necessary help. Ms. Lini Sudarsanan was largely responsible in collecting Census data for the pre-Independence period for Travancore, Cochin and Malabar district of the former Madras Presidency. Ms. Sreeja K.S. and Dr. Sunitha S. provided valuable help in collecting additional data and in checking the manuscript for errors and getting it into a publishable format. CDS Librarian Mr. V.Sriram, was extremely helpful in locating needed reference materials and Census volumes for Travancore, Cochin and Malabar for the pre-independence years. Professor K.N. Harilal was kind enough to read a draft version of the paper. His observations were extremely useful in improving the quality of the final output. I am also thankful for the external referee for his valuable comments.
ABSTRACT
This paper discusses the demographic and socio-economic profile of religious communities (Castes among the Hindus, Sects among the Muslims and Denominations among the Christians) in Kerala’s three major religions — Hinduism, Islam and Christianity. Such data are NOT presently available from other sources such as the population censuses. The practice of collecting “caste” data was discontinued in the Indian censuses ever since India became independent in 1947. This study, based mainly on data from the Kerala Migration Surveys, is an attempt to fill this void for recent years. It gives information on the size of the communities (population), trends, major demographic characteristics, selected socio-economic characteristics such as education, employment, migration and remittances, and several indices of the economic status at the household level. Lack of credible “caste” data to tell us who deserves preferential treatment could be the main cause that prompts some communities to make unreasonable demands for reservation. Analysis of the long-term trends in population of the three religious groups indicates that the Hindus who were more than two thirds of the state’s population in the beginning of the last century, could be less than 50 percent of the state’s population by the middle of the present century. On the other hand, by then, the Muslims who were fewer than the Christians during much of the last century, could become more than double the Christian population and exceed one-third of the state’s population. However, the Muslims are unlikely to overtake the Hindus in the matter of population size as their fertility rate would also dip to below-replacement-level in the span of 10 to 15 years. Although the population of all the three religious groups had increased during 2001-11 at the state level, in 4 out of the 14 districts and 26 out of the 63 taluks, the number of Christians is seen to have decreased. Similarly, in 3 of the districts and 16 of the taluks the number of Hindus decreased. There were decreases even among the Muslims in one district and 7 taluks. These statistics give sufficient indication that some of the communities among the religious groups could have decreased during 2001-11. The analysis of this study confirms that this conclusion is correct. It showed that, during 2001-11 while the proportions of the larger communities among the three religious groups (the Sunnis among the Muslims, the Ezhavas among the Hindus and the Syro-Malabar Catholics among the Christians) in the population of the State have increased, the corresponding proportions of the smaller ones, the non-Catholic Episcopal Syrian Christian denominations (the Jacobites, the Orthodox and the Mar Thoma Syrians) - the Nairs and Shia Muslims have decreased and are likely to continue their decreasing trend. Surprisingly, the SyroMalankara community, although part of the Catholic group, has followed the path of the non-Catholic Syrian group from whom they separated some 85 years ago. In recent years, the non-Catholic Episcopal Syrian Christian denominations have been at the top of the socio-economic ladder of the State, but the emerging differential population growth path of these communities, which entails an increasing load of old-age dependents, could have considerable adverse impacts on their relative role in the emerging political economy of the state. According to the earlier Kerala Migration Surveys, The Mar Thoma Syrian Community was at the top with respect to most of the socioeconomic indicators, but by 2014, they had lost their top spot to the other Syrian Christian communities. It is only a matter of time before these communities also pass on their high ranking to other religious communities. This is a transition in the demographic dividend. Keywords : Religious Denominations, Migration and Remittances, Development Prospects, IDB JEL Classifications: J11, O15, Z12 This paper is a short summary of the forthcoming book ‘Christian Denominations, Hindu Castes, Muslim Sects: A Study of Their Demography and Socioeconomic Profile’ which is expected to be published in 2017. The book includes several sections not covered in this paper. They include historical information on the origin and history of the various religious communities of Kerala, population growth of these communities during pre-Independence years (before 1947), etc.
Context of the Study From its initiation in 1872, the Census of India provided information on castes /denominations/sects of the various religious groups in India. The practice was, however, discontinued in 1951 and later censuses left a big void in caste-wise data for the Republic of India. This study, based mainly on data from the Kerala Migration Surveys, is an attempt to fill this void for Kerala for recent years. Objective of the Study The main objective of this study is to compare and contrast the various religious denominations of Kerala with respect to their population size, growth, geographical distribution, demographic and socio-economic characteristics, and economic status as can be ascertained on the basis of migration, remittances, housing quality, possession of household consumer items, and selected official indicators of the level of living of a household in Kerala. There is, however, no presumption that the inter-community differences are CAUSED by religious differences. Religion is but one factor among several others for the observed differences; there are other equally important factors. In the Kerala context, geographic location (Malabar, Cochin state, north Travancore or south Travancore, for example) is an equally important factor for the inter-denomination differences. In recent years, emigration and remittances have assumed greater relevance in this matter. The three R’s - Religion, Region and Remittances - could be expected to explain much of the inter-denominational differences in the socio-economic differences among the various religious communities in Kerala. Coverage Not all sub-divisions among the various religious groups are studied separately in this report. Some of them are too small to be identified in a sample survey covering only 15,000 households. Nine Christian denominations, seven Hindu caste groups and two Muslim sects are compared and contrasted with respect to their demographic and socio-economic profile. They are: Population Size The most important aspect of the demography of a population is its size; past, present and future. Unfortunately, data pertaining to these aspects are generally not available from official sources for the subdivisions within the major religious groups. A major contribution of this study is the unique set of estimates it provides of the number of persons belonging to the various denominations/castes/sects constituting the three major religions of the state for recent years. Numerically, at present, the Christians are the smallest among the three major religious groups in Kerala. They numbered just about 6.057 million according to the 2001 Census, and 6.141 million according to the 2011 Census. The Christians were 18.4 percent of the total population of the state in 2011. The majority community, the Hindus, with nearly 18 million, were 54.9 percent in 2011. The Muslims, with 8.9 million, were 26.6 percent in 2011. The numerical dominance of the Muslims over the Christians is a relatively recent phenomenon. For much of the last century, the Christians outnumbered the Muslims in Kerala. The 1981 Census, however, told a different story; the enumeration showed more Muslims than Christians. The turnaround took place sometime between 1971 and 1981. The relative share of the Muslims in the state’s population of Kerala has increased steadily since 1981 at the expense of both the Christians and the Hindus. The numerical dominance of the Muslims over the Christians in Kerala is likely to accelerate in the coming decades. By the middle of the century, Muslims could constitute more than a third and Christians less than one-sixth of Kerala’s population. Similarly, by 2051, the Hindus could be less than 50 percent of the State’s population for the first time in Kerala’s history. However, they are unlikely to be outnumbered in the state by any other community at any time 1. 1 The projections reported in this working paper are taken from the forthcoming book entitled ‘Christian Denominations, Hindu Castes, Muslim Sects: A Study of Their Demography and Socio Economic Profile’. Projections are given in Annex 1: Emerging Trends in the Religious Composition of Kerala’s Population.
The 6.141 million Christians in 2011 consists of 3.744 million Catholics (61.0 percent of the total Christians), 977,000 Jacobite/ Orthodox Syrians (15.9 percent), 405,000 Mar Thoma Syrians (6.6 percent), 274,000 Church of South India (CSI) adherents (4.5 percent), 214, 000 Pentecost/ Church of God members (3.5 percent) and 160,000 Dalit Christians (2.6 percent). The most numerous among the Christian denominations in Kerala today are the Syro-Malabar Catholics, numbering about 2,346,000 in 2011. The Latin Catholics, who numbered about 933,000 in 2011, are the second most numerous Christian denominations. The Jacobite Syrian Christian community has a membership of 483,000 and the Orthodox Syrian community has a membership of 494,000; together they number 977,000. The Mar Thoma denomination numbers about 405,000. Among the Hindus, the most numerous caste is the Ezhava community with a population of 7.215 million in 2011. They are followed by the Nairs who constituted a little under 4 million in 2011.
Together these communities accounted for more than 60 percent of the Hindu population in 2011. The Scheduled Caste/Tribe is an important group among the Hindus. They number about 3.2 million and were 17.5 percent of the Hindu population in 2011. The smallest community among the Hindus was the Barber/Washer men group. They were only about half of one percent of the Hindu population in 2011. The Sunnis are the largest religious community not only among the Muslims but also among all religious communities in Kerala. Numbering about 8.324 million in 2011, they constitute nearly 94 percent of the Muslim religious group and 25 percent of the State’s total population. The numerical dominance of the Sunni Muslims is likely to increase further in the years to come.
The Sunni sect among the Muslims (8.3 million) and the Ezhava caste among the Hindus (7.2 million) are each larger than the total of all the Christian denominations in Kerala today. The Sunni Muslims and Ezhava Hindus together account for more than 46 percent of the population of the state today. Together they are likely to strike an absolute majority in the near future. Population Trend According to Census, the total population of the state increased from 31.8 million in 2001 to 33.4 million in 2011. The overall increase was 1.565 million, 362,000 among the Hindus and 1,010,000 among the Muslims, but just 84,000 among the Christians (other minor religious groups account for the balance). Data suitable for estimating trends among the religious denominations are available only from KMS. However, these data are found to be not precise enough - due to sampling and non-sampling errors - for estimating short-term trends, especially for communities which are relatively small. Therefore, in this study, a new approach that combines Census and KMS data was followed to arrive at conclusions about population trends among the State’s religious communities. A general conclusion arrived at by using this approach is that, while the larger communities among all the three religious groups have increased during 2001-11, the smaller ones among them have decreased. Among the Christian denominations, while the Catholic denominations in general are found to be maintaining their increasing trend during 2001-11, the non-Catholic Episcopal Syrian Christian communities - the Jacobites, the Orthodox, the Mar Thoma and the CSI- started decreasing. The small increase of 84,000 persons among the Christians in general during 2001-11 was entirely due to the increase among the Catholic denominations. However, even among the Catholics, the Syro-Malankara Catholics are found to be an exception. Their declining trend was similar to that of the non-Catholic Syrians. In this connection, it is pertinent to recall that, until the 1930s, the SyroMalankara Catholics were part of the Orthodox Syrian Community.
Their growth trends seem to be similar to that of the denomination from which they originated. Among the Hindu denominations, the Nairs and Nadars have started declining in numbers but the largest community among them, the Ezhavas, continue to increase. There is no evidence of any decline among the Sunni Muslims; they are seen to continue their increasing trend. However, the Shia community is showing signs of a decreasing trend. Several factors could be cited for the decline in population of some of the communities in Kerala. Below replacement fertility is one of them. A second factor would be migration from Kerala to other states in India and to other countries outside India. Below replacement level fertility and emigration/out-migration are indeed the factors responsible for the decline in numbers of most of the communities in Kerala. A third factor responsible for the decline in the population of the Christian denominations could be movement from one Christian denomination to another. It is not uncommon for some members of the Syrian Episcopal churches to join the non-Episcopal denominations such as the Pentecost/Brethren sect. The extent of such movement is not documented, but could be large enough to account for part of the decline in the membership of Episcopal non-Catholic Syrian churches. Geographic Distribution and Dispersion The Christians and the Muslims are much more unevenly distributed across the 14 districts of the state than are the Hindus. In 2011, the index of concentration was 28.2 for the Muslims (31.6 in 2008), 27.5 for the Christians (30.5 in 2008), but only 2.8 for the Hindus (8.4 in 2008). (Index of Concentration varies from 0 to near 100. The higher the index, the higher is the concentration) The index decreased for all the three religious groups during 2008-11.
14 Ernakulam District, with about 1.248 million Christians in 2011, ranks first among all districts with respect to the number of Christians not only in the state, but in the whole of India. It is the abode of 20.3 percent of the Christians in Kerala. Among the denominations in the Christian community, the SyroMalabar Catholics are the most dispersed denomination with an index of concentration of 46.6 and Dalit Christians are the most concentrated with an index of 83.8. Among the Hindus, the Ezhavas are the most dispersed caste and the Nadar Hindus are the most concentrated. The four central districts in Kerala, Ernakulam, Trivandrum, Kottayam and Thrissur, together are the abode of nearly 60 percent of the Christians in Kerala. On the other hand, Kozhikode and Palakkad districts have just about 2 percent each. The district with the largest number of Syro-Malabar Catholic Christians is Kottayam (13.4 percent). About 12.9 percent of this group lives in Idukki district. Districts with a large number of Syro-Malankara Catholics are Ernakulam (16.7) and Kozhikode (13.0). For the Latin Catholics, the principal district of residence is Ernakulam (24.4). More than a quarter of the number of Jacobite Syrians lives in Ernakulam district. Pathanamthitta, Ernakulam and Kozhikode districts have a relatively high proportion of Orthodox Syrians. For Mar Thoma Syrians, the principal districts of residence are Pathanamthitta and Kozhikode. Trivandrum, Ernakulam, Kottayam and Pathanamthitta are principal abodes of the CSI community. Nearly a third of the Pentecost/Brethren community live in Pathanamthitta district. Demographic Structure The basic demographic structure of a population is its age-sex composition, which is a depository of its demographic transition, past trends in fertility, mortality and migration. As such, the current age-sex composition reveals a lot about the past trends in these basic parameters.
15 Analysis of the basic demographic parameters of the Christian denominations indicates that among the Christians, the Mar Thoma Syrians are the most advanced and the Latin Catholics are the least advanced denomination with respect to demographic transition. The Mar Thomas Syrians have the lowest average family size, the highest proportion of females, the lowest birth rate, the lowest mortality rate, the highest death rate, the highest deficit of men in the young working ages, the largest proportion of the elderly, and the highest proportion of widowed persons. In the case of most of the Christian communities, the negative natural increase is reinforced by migration out of Kerala as well as interdenominational movements to non-Episcopal Christian communities. An important structural aspect of age distribution is the ratio of young workers to dependents. The change in this ratio since the beginning of demographic transition is called the Index of Developmental Benefits or IDB in this study. For Kerala as a whole, the IDB was just 1.2 in 1961, but since then it increased to 42.8 by 2001. Thereafter, IDB declined and is likely to assume negative values after a decade or two. Among the Christian denominations in 2008, IDB varied from -1 for the Mar Thoma Syrians to 39 for Latin Catholics. By 2008, transition in age distribution is likely to have passed the optimum level from the point of developmental benefits among the Mar Thoma Syrians and most other Christian denominations. The Latin Catholics have the highest *IDB is defined as R1-R2 Where R1 = Ratio of young working age population to population in dependent ages. More specifically: R1 = 100 times (the number of persons 15-39 years)/ (sum of persons under 15 years and persons 60 years and above). R2 = corresponding ratio of the population at the beginning of its demographic transition
16 index. As historical data are not available, it is not sure whether the IDB is still increasing or whether it has started declining for the Latin Catholics. Among the Hindus, the SC/ST, Viswakarma and Ezhava communities have a relatively very favourable age distribution with high IDB values. However, the Brahmins and Nairs have a relatively low IDB. Human Resources On an average, the Christians are better educated than the other two religious communities. Among the Hindus, the Brahmins have relatively high educational scores (proportion of persons who have a minimum of secondary level of education). Both the Muslim sects and all the Hindu castes except the Brahmins and Nairs have relatively lower proportion of persons with secondary level education than the Christian denominations. The Sunni Muslims have the lowest proportion of employed persons. The proportion of employed among the Mar Thoma Christians (35.8 percent) is not very
